Market research firm DisplaySearch is predicting sales of e-paper displays, the predominant display technology used by e-reader devices, will grow to $9.6 by 2018. Sales for 2009 are expected to reach $431M, a near-quadrupling of 2008 sales ($129M).
While this year’s growth is to be expected given the number of new devices that have come on the market, I’m not sure the long-term growth is warranted (at least not without seeing the report data). We haven’t yet really seen if users are going to accept these devices in the long-term, or if they’ll be supplanted by alternatives. What happens if people get tired of a zillion different devices and decide an iPhone is “good enough” for their portable reading requirements? Or “heads-up” virtual displays become the norm?
Ten years is a long time, and a lot can happen. To put it in perspective, ten years ago most people didn’t have cell phones or broadband in their home. Although the rapid adoption of these technologies might speak in favor of e-readers becoming the norm, there’s just as much a chance that the trend of accelerating technological change may render e-readers obsolete before they reach mass adoption.
[via CNET)
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